Akiko Satake (Hokkaido University) :Forecasting plant phenology in a dynamically canging natural environment by gene expression assessment
Abstract:Understanding how climate warming impacts the life cycle schedule of terrestrial organisms is critical to evaluate ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change. Despite recent advances identifying molecular basis of temperature responses, few studies have incorporated this knowledge into predictive models of the phenology in natural and agricultural systems. We developed a method to forecast flowering timing by modeling regulatory dynamics of key flowering-time genes, FLOWERING LOCUS C and FLOWERING LOCUS T, in perennial life cycles.
The model, parameterized by controlled laboratory experiments, accurately reproduced the seasonal changes in gene expression and corresponding phenotypic responses observed in a dynamically changing natural environment. Forecasted impacts of warming on flowering were striking. The timing of both floral initiation and return to vegetative growth advanced with warming, but the shift in returning time was greater. This asymmetric shift resulted in a significant reduction of reproductive period. Our study highlights the usefulness of gene expression assessment to predict unexplored risks of climate change.
Gaku KUDO (Hokkaido University):Variation in flowering phenology and phenological mismatch between plants and pollinators in northern ecosystem (北方生態系における開花フェノロジー変動とフェノロジカルミスマッチ)
Climate change strongly influences the phenological events in spring. It may cause large variations in flowering time of spring ephemerals inhabiting cool-temperate forests and alpine plants in mountain regions. Fluctuation in flowering phenology may cause the phenological mismatch between plants and pollinator insects resulting in the decrease in fitness either plants or insects (or both of them). I introduce my recent researches in this topic. (Presentation in Japanese with English slides).
気候変動は春先のフェノロジーに強く作用することが知られています。開 花フェノロジー変動は、植物自身の繁殖成功のみならず、ポリネーターとの相互 作用にも影響する可能性があります。落葉広葉樹林の春植物と高山植物群落の開 花フェノロジー年変動とポリネーター（マルハナバチ）とのフェノロジカルミス マッチについて、最近の研究を紹介します。（スライドは英語、発表は日本語で す。）